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The Kelly Criterion is a method of betting for blackjack players who have a mathematical edge in a wager. The Kelly Criterion maximizes your profit while eliminating your risk of ruin. The Kelly Criterion is most often used by card counters. The better a player's chances of winning based on the card count, the more the player bets.

The size of this bet is determined according to the Kelly Criterion, sometimes known as the Kelly Formula. If the house has an edge in a game, then the Kelly Criterion is useless. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to maximize the growth rate of serial gambling wagers that have a positive expectation. The Kelly Criterion is a model for long-term growth rate. It does not predict automatic short-term success, but the Kelly Criterion does maximize profits by setting the percentage of a player's bankroll which should be bet at each stage of play.

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Basically, the Kelly Criterion can be boiled down to this: When you raise the size of your bet based on how good the count is in a blackjack game where you're counting, you're putting the Kelly Criterion into action. Kelly began to develop investing strategies according to probability theory. These theories also applied to gambling strategies, too, and these investing strategies are part of what is now called game theory. Shannon and his wife used the Kelly Criterion to win at blackjack.

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Claude Shannon and another colleague eventually applied the Kelly Criterion to the stock market, eventually collecting a fortune. By this time, John Kelly was dead of a stroke. His theory has been applied to gambling with increasing frequency over the years.

The Kelly formula is meant to determine the fraction of your bankroll which you should bet at any given times. The idea is that you find that fraction which maximizes the amount of money you expect to win. This is the number someone is looking for when using the Kelly formula. For example, if the probability of winning p is 0.

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